FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Progression Chances
Each team's probability of reaching each stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on 10,000 simulations.
Updated June 26, 2026
Current
| Team | RatingRating | TiltTilt | Gr.Group | Win Group | Reach R32 | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Champ.Champion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | ArgentinaARG 2-0-0 | 98.2 | -3.5 | J | ✓ | ✓ | 88.6% | 71.4% | 48.1% | 30.7% | 19.7% |
 | SpainESP 1-1-0 | 97.6 | +1.5 | H | 82.8% | >99.9% | 79.0% | 52.4% | 40.3% | 26.6% | 15.7% |
 | BrazilBRA 2-1-0 | 96.6 | -1.3 | C | ✓ | ✓ | 68.9% | 47.9% | 30.6% | 16.4% | 9.5% |
 | FranceFRA 2-0-0 | 95.9 | -1.4 | I | 74.9% | ✓ | 81.8% | 50.9% | 32.4% | 17.3% | 8.7% |
 | PortugalPOR 1-1-0 | 95.7 | +1.2 | K | 38.1% | >99.9% | 76.7% | 45.4% | 26.8% | 15.5% | 7.8% |
 | EnglandENG 1-1-0 | 96.2 | -3.0 | L | 83.4% | >99.9% | 74.9% | 44.7% | 25.6% | 13.2% | 7.6% |
 | ColombiaCOL 2-0-0 | 95.0 | -4.6 | K | 61.9% | ✓ | 76.8% | 46.8% | 24.0% | 12.8% | 6.2% |
 | NetherlandsNED 2-1-0 | 93.1 | +4.3 | F | ✓ | ✓ | 56.8% | 43.5% | 22.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% |
 | GermanyGER 2-0-1 | 92.8 | +7.2 | E | ✓ | ✓ | 71.3% | 34.2% | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.7% |
 | USAUSA 2-0-1 | 81.3 | +3.8 | D | ✓ | ✓ | 83.7% | 49.2% | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.3% |
 | NorwayNOR 2-0-0 | 90.9 | +3.9 | I | 25.1% | ✓ | 74.0% | 30.4% | 14.8% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
 | MoroccoMAR 2-1-0 | 90.6 | -6.6 | C | ✕ | ✓ | 43.2% | 30.4% | 14.0% | 6.1% | 2.1% |
 | BelgiumBEL 0-2-0 | 91.2 | +3.7 | G | 31.5% | 91.8% | 62.9% | 27.2% | 11.7% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
 | MexicoMEX 3-0-0 | 88.2 | -3.6 | A | ✓ | ✓ | 63.9% | 32.6% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
 | SwitzerlandSUI 2-1-0 | 89.0 | +2.1 | B | ✓ | ✓ | 65.7% | 25.7% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
 | JapanJPN 1-2-0 | 89.9 | -0.3 | F | ✕ | ✓ | 31.1% | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
 | CroatiaCRO 1-0-1 | 87.8 | +0.8 | L | 12.4% | 91.7% | 32.5% | 13.1% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
 | UruguayURU 0-2-0 | 89.5 | -2.0 | H | 14.9% | 38.6% | 19.5% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
 | EcuadorECU 1-1-1 | 88.7 | -3.7 | E | ✕ | ✓ | 38.3% | 16.2% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
 | CanadaCAN 1-1-1 | 82.2 | -1.6 | B | ✕ | ✓ | 71.8% | 21.9% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
 | AustriaAUT 1-0-1 | 84.6 | +3.4 | J | ✕ | 87.7% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
 | ParaguayPAR 1-1-1 | 81.9 | -4.0 | D | ✕ | 99.9% | 28.7% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
 | IranIRN 0-2-0 | 80.3 | -4.6 | G | 20.2% | 70.0% | 31.2% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
 | South KoreaKOR 1-0-2 | 78.9 | -3.3 | A | ✕ | 63.3% | 28.2% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
 | AustraliaAUS 1-1-1 | 81.6 | -3.1 | D | ✕ | ✓ | 42.7% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
 | SwedenSWE 1-1-1 | 80.7 | +4.1 | F | ✕ | ✓ | 20.9% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
 | SenegalSEN 0-0-2 | 83.4 | -4.4 | I | ✕ | 40.9% | 13.5% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
 | AlgeriaALG 1-0-1 | 79.3 | +1.8 | J | ✕ | 60.3% | 14.7% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
 | Ivory CoastCIV 2-0-1 | 76.5 | -2.4 | E | ✕ | ✓ | 23.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 | EgyptEGY 1-1-0 | 75.4 | -4.3 | G | 48.2% | >99.9% | 39.0% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
 | South AfricaRSA 1-1-1 | 66.5 | -3.8 | A | ✕ | ✓ | 28.2% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 | GhanaGHA 1-1-0 | 67.8 | -4.1 | L | 4.2% | >99.9% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | DR CongoCOD 0-1-1 | 70.6 | -3.4 | K | ✕ | 38.7% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | ScotlandSCO 1-0-2 | 79.1 | +0.5 | C | ✕ | 9.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaBIH 1-1-1 | 66.1 | +3.7 | B | ✕ | ✓ | 16.3% | 4.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | Cape VerdeCPV 0-2-0 | 63.3 | -3.7 | H | 2.3% | 66.9% | 5.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | Saudi ArabiaKSA 0-1-1 | 62.4 | -4.4 | H | ✕ | 32.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | New ZealandNZL 0-1-1 | 63.6 | -2.3 | G | ✕ | 7.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | IraqIRQ 0-0-2 | 60.8 | -5.3 | I | ✕ | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | UzbekistanUZB 0-0-2 | 67.6 | -0.4 | K | ✕ | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | CuracaoCUW 0-1-2 | 49.8 | +0.1 | E | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | CzechiaCZE 0-1-2 | 73.1 | +2.5 | A | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | HaitiHTI 0-0-3 | 59.8 | +1.0 | C | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | JordanJOR 0-0-2 | 67.7 | -2.0 | J | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | PanamaPAN 0-0-2 | 68.6 | -0.1 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | QatarQAT 0-1-2 | 51.6 | +2.9 | B | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | TunisiaTUN 0-0-3 | 68.4 | -3.6 | F | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | TurkeyTUR 1-0-2 | 82.6 | +4.1 | D | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |