FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Progression Chances
Each team's probability of reaching each stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on 10,000 simulations.
Updated February 5, 2026
| Team | Gr.Group | Qualify | Win Group | Reach R32 | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Champ.Champion | OVR.Overall | Att.Attack | Def.Defense | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Spain | H | ✓ | 75.6% | 99.4% | 76.2% | 53.9% | 40.8% | 28.1% | 17.8% | 98.1 | 98.4 | 97.6 |
 | Argentina | J | ✓ | 76.8% | 98.3% | 65.9% | 52.5% | 35.5% | 22.6% | 13.9% | 97.8 | 96.3 | 98.9 |
 | England | L | ✓ | 67.9% | 98.0% | 70.6% | 47.3% | 30.2% | 17.2% | 9.8% | 96.6 | 95.0 | 97.9 |
 | Brazil | C | ✓ | 66.1% | 98.2% | 67.7% | 45.7% | 28.3% | 15.7% | 8.9% | 96.2 | 95.3 | 97.0 |
 | Colombia | K | ✓ | 44.3% | 95.7% | 67.5% | 40.5% | 23.7% | 13.7% | 7.5% | 95.5 | 92.3 | 97.7 |
 | Portugal | K | ✓ | 51.2% | 97.1% | 69.6% | 42.8% | 25.5% | 14.4% | 7.5% | 95.7 | 96.0 | 95.3 |
 | France | I | ✓ | 52.8% | 95.5% | 68.1% | 43.3% | 27.1% | 13.8% | 7.0% | 95.5 | 94.4 | 96.5 |
 | Netherlands | F | ✓ | 53.3% | 91.9% | 52.6% | 33.8% | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 93.1 | 95.2 | 90.5 |
 | Germany | E | ✓ | 58.9% | 98.3% | 63.7% | 33.0% | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 92.8 | 97.0 | 86.3 |
 | Belgium | G | ✓ | 64.6% | 95.2% | 64.8% | 35.4% | 13.6% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 91.0 | 93.7 | 87.7 |
 | Norway | I | ✓ | 28.7% | 87.6% | 49.4% | 24.3% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 90.5 | 92.9 | 87.8 |
 | Uruguay | H | ✓ | 22.3% | 92.5% | 41.9% | 23.4% | 11.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 90.8 | 88.9 | 92.5 |
 | Switzerland | B | ✓ | 38.6% | 93.5% | 59.9% | 26.5% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 89.3 | 90.3 | 88.2 |
 | Ecuador | E | ✓ | 34.0% | 92.8% | 49.1% | 22.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 89.5 | 86.7 | 92.0 |
 | Morocco | C | ✓ | 23.1% | 87.1% | 41.1% | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 88.4 | 80.1 | 94.5 |
 | Croatia | L | ✓ | 26.4% | 89.5% | 41.9% | 18.6% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 89.3 | 89.0 | 89.5 |
 | Japan | F | ✓ | 29.4% | 82.1% | 36.3% | 19.5% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 88.7 | 88.4 | 89.0 |
 | USA | D | ✓ | 39.0% | 82.4% | 47.1% | 20.7% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 80.2 | 82.8 | 77.5 |
 | Italy | B* | 50.0% | 16.2% | 45.9% | 29.6% | 13.5% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 88.7 | 86.8 | 90.4 |
 | Senegal | I | ✓ | 17.2% | 77.3% | 38.1% | 16.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 87.1 | 80.6 | 92.4 |
 | Denmark | A* | 52.1% | 20.6% | 45.5% | 28.0% | 12.6% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 88.9 | 88.8 | 89.1 |
 | Mexico | A | ✓ | 46.0% | 90.0% | 51.6% | 22.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 83.7 | 79.6 | 87.4 |
 | Canada | B | ✓ | 37.0% | 92.1% | 52.2% | 20.8% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 82.4 | 79.8 | 84.7 |
 | Austria | J | ✓ | 13.7% | 75.9% | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 84.4 | 87.4 | 81.1 |
 | Australia | D | ✓ | 20.7% | 65.3% | 29.1% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 80.8 | 77.4 | 84.0 |
 | Scotland | C | ✓ | 9.9% | 69.8% | 22.9% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 80.0 | 80.8 | 79.3 |
 | Paraguay | D | ✓ | 22.9% | 69.1% | 33.3% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 82.6 | 77.9 | 86.8 |
 | South Korea | A | ✓ | 19.7% | 71.1% | 31.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 80.4 | 76.4 | 84.2 |
 | Iran | G | ✓ | 18.8% | 73.3% | 31.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 79.0 | 72.9 | 84.5 |
 | Turkey | D* | 41.5% | 10.8% | 29.3% | 14.6% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 83.4 | 87.8 | 78.5 |
 | Algeria | J | ✓ | 6.8% | 55.8% | 13.4% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 77.9 | 79.5 | 76.2 |
 | Wales | B* | 39.4% | 6.6% | 30.7% | 14.4% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 78.3 | 75.8 | 80.7 |
 | Czechia | A* | 33.3% | 6.4% | 23.1% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 77.2 | 78.4 | 76.0 |
 | Ukraine | F* | 30.9% | 4.0% | 18.3% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 80.6 | 80.1 | 81.1 |
 | Ivory Coast | E | ✓ | 6.5% | 61.8% | 17.2% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 73.6 | 70.8 | 76.3 |
 | Sweden | F* | 32.1% | 3.8% | 18.6% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 79.1 | 81.9 | 76.2 |
 | Egypt | G | ✓ | 11.2% | 58.6% | 19.8% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 72.9 | 66.7 | 78.7 |
 | Tunisia | F | ✓ | 6.2% | 39.6% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 74.4 | 67.9 | 80.4 |
 | Poland | F* | 28.2% | 2.8% | 15.8% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 78.1 | 81.5 | 74.5 |
 | Panama | L | ✓ | 3.3% | 39.7% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 70.1 | 69.5 | 70.8 |
 | Uzbekistan | K | ✓ | 2.5% | 36.3% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 70.5 | 68.9 | 72.0 |
 | Slovakia | D* | 32.7% | 3.6% | 15.6% | 5.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 73.2 | 71.8 | 74.5 |
 | New Zealand | G | ✓ | 5.5% | 39.2% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.9 | 61.1 | 70.6 |
 | Ghana | L | ✓ | 2.4% | 32.1% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.6 | 61.6 | 71.5 |
 | Jordan | J | ✓ | 2.8% | 33.1% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.4 | 66.3 | 72.5 |
 | Northern Ireland | B* | 4.2% | 0.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 68.1 | 62.0 | 73.9 |
 | Ireland | A* | 12.0% | 1.8% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 71.4 | 64.5 | 78.0 |
 | Haiti | C | ✓ | 1.0% | 15.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 59.8 | 60.7 | 58.8 |
 | Romania | D* | 9.4% | 1.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 73.7 | 72.4 | 75.0 |
 | DR Congo | K* | 68.5% | 1.8% | 22.2% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.6 | 65.9 | 73.2 |
 | South Africa | A | ✓ | 5.3% | 34.7% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.6 | 61.8 | 71.2 |
 | Saudi Arabia | H | ✓ | 1.1% | 29.8% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 63.4 | 57.2 | 69.6 |
 | Bolivia | I* | 43.8% | 0.8% | 7.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 67.0 | 72.6 | 61.2 |
 | Cape Verde | H | ✓ | 0.9% | 25.1% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61.5 | 56.6 | 66.5 |
 | Albania | F* | 8.9% | 0.5% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.9 | 62.3 | 77.1 |
 | Iraq | I* | 47.6% | 0.5% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61.6 | 53.9 | 69.2 |
 | Kosovo | D* | 16.4% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 70.3 | 73.0 | 67.6 |
 | Jamaica | K* | 30.6% | 0.2% | 5.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 58.2 | 52.7 | 63.8 |
 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B* | 6.4% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 64.8 | 69.4 | 60.1 |
 | Curacao | E | ✓ | 0.7% | 12.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 53.2 | 52.7 | 53.6 |
 | North Macedonia | A* | 2.6% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.3 | 66.1 | 64.4 |
 | Qatar | B | ✓ | 0.8% | 10.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 54.0 | 57.3 | 50.7 |
 | Suriname | I* | 8.6% | <0.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 49.4 | 51.2 | 47.7 |
 | New Caledonia | K* | 0.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 28.9 | 31.9 | 26.1 |